Under fire weather conditions that feature high winds, electric power systems have been shown to be a rising source of catastrophic wildfires. The utility-related wildfires are mostly attributed to conductor-vegetation contact which can then lead to flashover (or sparkover) and subsequent ignition. Decision making, such as proactive power shutoffs and vegetation management, can be informed by wildfire risk analysis, in which the ignition probability analysis is a key component. This study focuses on the ignitions caused by the conductor swinging out to nearby vegetation under high winds. The problem is formulated in the context of proactive de-energization with a focus on the transmission system. Specifically, the failure (or limit state) is defined as the conductor encroaching into the prescribed minimum vegetation clearance and is examined through quantifiable distances. The stochastic properties of the dynamic displacement response of transmission conductors are derived from spectral analysis in the frequency domain.

Publication:

Wang, X., Bocchini, P. Predicting wildfire ignition induced by dynamic conductor swaying under strong winds. Sci Rep 13, 3998 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-30802-w

Read more:

A Mechanistic and Probabilistic Method for Predicting Wildfires

Source: Lehigh News

Light a Light or Light a Fire

Source: Graduate Student Research Series

Electrical transmission systems are the most critical infrastructure in modern society. The spatial characteristics of transmission networks incur larger exposure and higher vulnerability to natural hazards such as hurricanes. A transmission line consists of two distinct structural systems: the wire system (e.g., conductors, ground wires, insulators), and the structural support systems (e.g., transmission towers). The electrical functions of transmission lines govern the wire system where electricity is transported in conductors. The support system is designed to provide reliable support for the wire system in compliance with electrical and structural criteria. Our study is aimed to develop class fragility models of transmission towers under hurricanes, which is a necessary component for regional portfolio analysis of transmission systems.

Publication:

Xinyue Wang, Liyang Ma, Paolo Bocchini. “Panel-Oriented Surrogate Model for Developing Class Fragility Curves for Transmission Towers.” In Proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, Trinity College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland, July 09-13, 2023. 

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