Predicting wildfire ignition induced by dynamic conductor swinging under strong winds
Under fire weather conditions that feature high winds, electric power systems have been shown to be a rising source of catastrophic wildfires. The utility-related wildfires are mostly attributed to conductor-vegetation contact which can then lead to flashover (or sparkover) and subsequent ignition. Decision making, such as proactive power shutoffs and vegetation management, can be informed by wildfire risk analysis, in which the ignition probability analysis is a key component.
This study focuses on the ignitions caused by the conductor swinging out to nearby vegetation under high winds. The problem is formulated in the context of proactive de-energization with a focus on the transmission system. Specifically, the failure (or limit state) is defined as the conductor encroaching into the prescribed minimum vegetation clearance and is examined through quantifiable distances. The stochastic properties of the dynamic displacement response of transmission conductors are derived from spectral analysis in the frequency domain.
Publication:
Wang, X., and Bocchini, P. (2023). “Predicting wildfire ignition induced by dynamic conductor swaying under strong winds.” Scientific Reports, 13(1), Article 1. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598‑023‑30802‑w
Read more:
A Mechanistic and Probabilistic Method for Predicting Wildfires
Source: Lehigh News
Source: Graduate Student Research Series
Class fragility models of transmission towers for regional portfolio analysis under hurricanes
Electrical transmission systems are among the most critical infrastructure in modern society. The spatial characteristics of transmission networks incur larger exposure and higher vulnerability to natural hazards such as hurricanes. Our study is aimed to develop parameterized class fragility models of transmission towers under hurricanes, which is a necessary component for regional-scale risk and resilience analysis of transmission systems.
Publication:
Wang, X., Ma, L., and Bocchini, P.* (2023). “Panel‑oriented surrogate model for developing class fragility curves for transmission towers.” 14th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP14), Dublin, Ireland. [Conference paper]
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