The Engineering Mechanics Institute Conference 2022 (EMI 2022) was hosted by Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, MD.
EMI 2022 was the first conference in Xinyue’s life and it turned out to be a perfect one with beautiful memories. She is now a bit worried if her future conferences can push the bar or not.
Dr. Bocchini’s research group contributed seven presenations on diverse topics, about which a full description can be found on this webpage. Xinyue is very grateful for this opportunity and for the support she received from this lovely research family.
Despite all the enjoyment, Xinyue actually had struggles behind the scenes because she had zero conference experience before. To overcome those worries, Xinyue wrote herself a letter to build the right mindset. Check it out here.
The title of Xinyue’s presenation is “Predicting Wildfire Ignition Induced by Conductor-Vegetation Contact Under High Winds“.
Abstract
Under fire weather conditions that feature high winds, electric power systems have been shown to be a rising source of catastrophic wildfires. The utility-related wildfires are mostly attributed to conductor-vegetation contact which can then lead to flashover (or sparkover) and subsequent ignition. Decision making, such as proactive power shutoffs and vegetation management, can be informed by wildfire risk analysis, in which the ignition probability analysis is a key component. This study focuses on the ignitions caused by the conductor swinging out to nearby vegetation under high winds. The problem is formulated in the context of proactive de-energization with a focus on the transmission system. Specifically, the failure (or limit state) is defined as the conductor encroaching into the prescribed minimum vegetation clearance and is examined through quantifiable distances. The stochastic properties of the dynamic displacement response of transmission conductors are derived from spectral analysis in the frequency domain.
The probability of encroachment, proposed as the proxy for the probability of ignition, is estimated by solving a classical first-excursion problem based on random vibration theory. The impact of conductor dynamics on encroachment probability is investigated considering varied wind intensities and vegetation clearances. A numerical example featuring a two-span transmission line is given, and an example application at the transmission system level is presented. It is found that the conductor exhibits appreciable variations in its displacement response under turbulent high winds. Neglecting this uncertainty can underestimate the wildfire risk from power systems. In addition to the durations of wind events, the results show the importance of vegetation clearance and wind intensity, by quantifying their effects on the encroachment probability. These findings provide evidence of the value of high-resolution data on these quantities. While flexible in accommodating various combinations of wind loading, structures and vegetation, the presented methodology provides a potential avenue for accurate and efficient ignition probability prediction.
Xinyue Wang, Paolo Bocchini.
Predicting Wildfire Ignition Induced by Conductor-Vegetation Contact Under High Winds.
In Proceedings of the 2022 Conference of the Engineering Mechanics Institute, ASCE, p. 688, 2022.
English